What to expect​

We seem to have reached a low for fuel prices and have started witnessing a renewed uptick as we get deeper into the summer season. We expect to continue to see crude oil in the US and across benckmarks to remain stable in their current levels (~$80 per barrel).

Highlights​

• Crude expected to remain at $80 per barrel: Oil prices are holding above $80 per barrel due to a combination of supply constraints and market dynamics. Key factors include ongoing production cuts by major oil-producing countries and increased summer energy demand. Additionally, market uncertainty about future demand, influenced by global economic conditions and geopolitical tensions, is contributing to price stability at this level.

  "Summer inventory draws should be enough to get Brent back into the high $80s-$90 range by September" - Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan's head of global commodities strategy

• Gasoline prices headed for a summer squeeze: The driving season and higher energy consumption for cooling are major factors behind the anticipated price rise. This demand is expected to create a market deficit, pushing prices upward.

  "We expect that healthy consumers and solid summer demand for transportation and cooling will push the market in a sizable Q3 deficit," - Daan Struyven, managing director and head of oil research at Goldman Sachs

• Gasoline in the US up after 3 week decline: U.S. gasoline prices have risen to a three-week high, driven primarily by increases in the Great Lakes region. The national average price at the pump increased by 1 cent from the previous week, halting a gradual decline. This rise in prices comes despite a backdrop of fluctuating oil prices and varying regional demand and supply dynamics. The increase highlights the sensitivity of gasoline prices to regional market conditions and broader economic factors​

  “Since the national average price of gasoline fell to its lowest June level since 2021 last week, we’ve seen the drop in prices take a break, with some states seeing a small rise over the last week. Thankfully, I expect this to be more like a short timeout, with an eventual return to falling gasoline prices in most states,” - Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy

• Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): The U.S. is in the process of refilling its SPR after significant drawdowns in 2022. The Energy Department has initiated new solicitations to purchase oil at favorable prices to replenish these reserves, aiming to stabilize the market​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF
• https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RB=F/
• https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-gasoline-prices-3-week-173000293.html
• https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-to-rise-to-86-per-barrel-this-quarter-on-solid-summer-demand-goldman-says-160132707.html
• https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sachs-Sees-Oil-Prices-Rising-to-86-This-Summer.html

Summary​

Crude oil benchmarks closed the trading week higher the last week but saw some small relief at the end of the week. US WTI closed the current week at $80 per barrel, compared to last week, which closed at $78 per barrel.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on June 22th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.17 per gallon on average. We see a reported low of $3.08 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.24 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.24 per gallon, with a low of $3.15 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.34 per gallon (Total).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price

Summary​

US WTI crude oil remains at $81 per barrel for the last trading day of the week.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on June 21th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.18 per gallon on average. We see a reported low of $3.10 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.26 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.24 per gallon, with a low of $3.15 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.34 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price

Summary​

US WTI crude oil trades today at around $81 per barrel.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on June 20th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.17 per gallon on average. We see a reported low of $3.10 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.26 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.22 per gallon, with a low of $3.13 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.34 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price

Summary​

Crude oil benchmarks continue their upward trend influencing local wholesale fuel prices. US WTI currentlly trades at $81.48 per barrel.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on June 19th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.17 per gallon on average. We see a reported low of $3.10 per gallon (76 / Phillips) and a high of $3.26 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.22 per gallon, with a low of $3.13 per gallon (76 / Phillips) and a high of $3.34 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price

Summary​

Crude oil benchamarks start the week on an uptick with US WTI currently trading at $80 per barrel and international Brent at $84 per barrel. Local wholesale fuel prices follow the trend.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on June 18th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.15 per gallon on average. We see a reported low of $3.08 per gallon (76 / Phillips) and a high of $3.23 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.20 per gallon, with a low of $3.11 per gallon (76 / Phillips) and a high of $3.30 per gallon (Total).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price

What to expect​

Crude oil closed off the trading session last week at $78 per barrel after we saw a low of $73 per barrel earlier in the month. We continue to monitor crude oil benchmarks and wholesale fuel prices with expectation we are seeing lower numbers but deeper in the the summer we will start seeing un uptick in prices again.

Highlights​

• Gas prices cool on latest inflation report: Gasoline prices decline in May contributing to a cooling inflation report.

  "The gasoline index declined 3.6% in May on a monthly basis, compared to a 2.8% spike in April. Overall, headline inflation was unchanged from April, down from the previous month's 0.3% gain in prices." - Ines Ferré, Senior Business Reporter at Yahoo Finance

• Gasoline expectations at the end of summer: Gasoline prices are expected to rise towards the end of the summer on outlook of a busy storm season in the Gulf of Mexico and hightened demand once schools kick into gear.

  "We believe that gasoline will be like a Bactrian camel with two humps. We’re on our way down from the first hump but a second hump may come with intense heat, brisk demand, and hurricane worries in late July and August," - Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS

• Crude oil surplus by 2030: Falling demand for crude oil and hightened US production has IEA estimating a 8 million barrels per day surplus by 2030.

  "Oil demand will slow before peaking at 106 million barrels per day in 2030, oil production is expected to surge to 114 million barrels per day, that would result in an oversupply of about 8 million barrels. Fossil fuels account for about 80% of global energy supply and by 2030 that's expected to decrease to 73%" - International Energy Agency, Oil 2024 Report

• Expectations on a crude oil: We have a Brent price target of $86 per barrel by Goldman Sachs during Q3 2024, Citibank goes bearish with a forecast of $60 per barrel for Brent during 2025.

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF
• https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RB=F/
• https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-prices-decline-helping-cool-inflation-in-may-140451692.html
• https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-to-rise-to-86-per-barrel-this-quarter-on-solid-summer-demand-goldman-says-160132707.html
• https://www.iea.org/news/slowing-demand-growth-and-surging-supply-put-global-oil-markets-on-course-for-major-surplus-this-decade
• https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/493a4f1b-c0a8-4bfc-be7b-b9c0761a3e5e/Oil2024.pdf
• https://finance.yahoo.com/video/iea-warns-8m-barrel-per-153149115.html
• https://finance.yahoo.com/video/oil-prices-could-sink-below-153412743.html

Summary​

US WTI closes the week at around $78 per barrel.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on June 15th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.13 per gallon on average. We see a reported low of $3.07 per gallon (76 / Phillips) and a high of $3.23 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.17 per gallon, with a low of $3.08 per gallon (76 / Phillips) and a high of $3.26 per gallon (Texaco, Total).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price

Summary​

Crude oil in the US (WTI) trades today at $78 per barrel, slightly higher compared to yesterday.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on June 14th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.14 per gallon on average. We see a reported low of $3.01 per gallon (Bita's Fuel Corp.) and a high of $3.24 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.18 per gallon, with a low of $3.10 per gallon (76 / Phillips) and a high of $3.28 per gallon (Texaco, Total).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price

Summary​

Crude oil in the US (WTI) continue to trade today at $77 per barrel.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on June 13th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.09 per gallon on average. We see a reported low of $2.98 per gallon (76 / Phillips) and a high of $3.21 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.17 per gallon, with a low of $3.08 per gallon (76 / Phillips) and a high of $3.26 per gallon (Texaco, Total).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price