Summary​

A barrel of crude oil in the US (WTI) briefly traded at $83 yesterday, but has since subsided lower trading closer to the $82 per barrel range today. We note that Brent and OPEC Reference Basket Price have traded near the $90 per barrel mark, which is the current price target for OPEC+ nations, whereas we currently see the oil price benchmarks standing at around $86 per barrel.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on March 20th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.40 per gallon on average. We see a reported low of $3.34 per gallon (76 / Phillips) and a high of $3.57 per gallon (Total).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.37 per gallon, with a low of $3.31 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.48 per gallon (Peerless Oil).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price

Summary​

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI), oil benchmark in the US which trades under the CL=F ticker, continues it upward move currently trading at around $82.80 per barrel. Compared to a week ago, crude in the US was $77.56 per barrel marking a 6.8% increase (close to $5 difference per barrel). The price of crude oil continues to lift fuel prices in Puerto Rico.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on March 19th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.47 per gallon on average, a $0.07 increase from previous report (2% increase). We see a reported low of $3.36 per gallon (American Petroleum) and a high of $3.58 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.39 per gallon, showing a marked upwards trend, with a low of $3.31 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.48 per gallon (Peerless oil).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price

What to expect​

We have seen a sharp increase across the fuel markets driven mostly by crude oil price increases, summer month gasoline prices and hotter than expected inflation with fuel prices being a main driver.

Crude oil in the US (WTI via CL=F) was trading slightly higher at the open of Asian markets, closer towards $82 per barrel. Should this upward price motion continue, expect higher wholesale fuel prices.

Highlights​

• US inflation increase driven by shelter and fuel: A 2.3% increase in energy costs contributed to higher inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter climbed another 0.4%.

  “Inflation continues to churn above 3%, and once again shelter costs were the main villain. With home prices expected to rise this year and rents falling only slowly, the long-awaited fall in shelter prices isn’t coming to the rescue any time soon. Reports like January’s and February’s aren’t going to prompt the Fed to lower rates quickly.” - Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union

• Oil Demand Forecasts: OPEC maintains its world oil demand at 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) while IEA has revised its demand forecast with higher estimates at around 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) a slight increase up by 110,000 bpd from last estimate.

  "Quite a bullish report, with upward revisions on demand growth, and lower supply growth estimates," - UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF
• https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RB=F/
• https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/opec-sticks-oil-demand-view-nudges-up-economic-growth-again-2024-03-12/
• https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/iea-raises-oil-demand-outlook-again-but-still-lags-opec/ar-BB1jT8c8
• https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/12/cpi-inflation-report-february-2024-.html?&doc=107386073
• https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gasoline-higher-prices-are-ahead-for-consumers-165718865.html

Summary​

Crude oil prices in the US (WTI) closed at $81.26 per barrel for the last trading day of the week.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on March 16th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.39 per gallon on average. We see a reported low of $3.32 per gallon (American Petroleum) and a high of $3.53 per gallon (Total).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.33 per gallon, with a low of $3.27 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.41 per gallon (Total).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price

Summary​

We are ending the week with sharp increases in crude oil prices across the market. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI via CL=F) ended the trading day yesterday at $81.26 per barrel (+1.93% from previous close), whereas intraday trading today hovers around $80.73 per barrel. OPEC Reference Basket and Brent crude, which is the more common international crude oil price benchmark, have seen sharp increases as well with last price observations close to the $85 per barrel range.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on March 15th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.42 per gallon on average, a $0.03 difference from yesterday. We see a reported low of $3.31 per gallon (Bitas Fuel Corp.) and a high of $3.55 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.34 per gallon, a $0.05 difference (+1.51%), with a low of $3.25 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.41 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price

Summary​

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI), preferred benchmark for crude oil in the US, closed trading yesterday shy of the $80 per barrel mark. Today, intraday trading of futures for WTI is hovering at around $80.39 per barrel. Prices for derived fuels have also risen in tandem with crude oil markets.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on March 14th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.39 per gallon on average, a $0.07 difference (+2.1%). We see a reported low of $3.28 per gallon (76, Phillips) and a high of $3.53 per gallon (Total).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.29 per gallon, a $0.08 difference (+2.5%), with a low of $3.21 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.38 per gallon (Texaco, Total).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price

Summary​

We continue to see crude oil in the US (WTI) to trade around $78 per barrel. No mayor price activity.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on March 13th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.32 per gallon on average. We see a reported low of $3.23 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.47 per gallon (Total).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.21 per gallon, with a low of $3.13 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.32 per gallon (Total).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price

Summary​

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI), ended last week at $77 per barrel and today is currently trading at the $78 per barrel range. Crude oil has remained steady throughout last couple of weeks with WTI hovering near but not surpasing the $80 dollars per barrel ceiling.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on March 12th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.38 per gallon on average. We see a reported low of $3.24 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.51 per gallon (Texaco, Total).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.21 per gallon, with a low of $3.13 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.32 per gallon (Texaco).

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price

What to expect​

Crude oil has remained steady at near but less than the $80 per barrel mark throughout last week. We expect this coming week to see similar stability but with the general expectation of a rise in wholesale gasoline prices on the island. Comparing wholsale gasoline prices to last year, at the peak of the summer (2023), we saw wholesale gasoline prices at around $3.50 per gallon, we could reach these historical levels in the coming months.

Highlights​

• Gas Prices in the US: The national average for regular gasoline stands around $3.397 per gallon ($0.208 difference from a month ago, a 6.52% increase)

"US refining has been stunted by severe weather and some power losses at key plants. We may in the next few days see US retail gas prices at a higher number than year-ago," Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS

"This is the time of year that there's a lot of pressure on refineries, they are doing maintenance before the summer. They are transitioning over to summer gasoline. In the background, demand is all going up at the same time. That puts a lot of pressure on refineries to finish that maintenance, to get back online and boost production." - GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan

• OPEC Production Cuts OPEC+ members agree to extend crude oil output production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in to the second quarter of 2024

"I think the rally in crude oil prices is on the expectation that OPEC+ will continue with their voluntary production cuts well into the second quarter of 2024," Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates

• China demand: Oil prices has seen a decrease amid concerns over the demand outlook in China, the world's biggest crude importer

China's imports of crude oil rose in the first two months of the year compared with the same period in 2023, but they were weaker than the preceding months, data showed on Thursday, continuing a trend of softening purchases by the world's biggest buyer.

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• https://gasprices.aaa.com/
• https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF
• https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RB=F/
• https://finance.yahoo.com/video/oil-prices-firm-opec-extends-065726576.html
• https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/crude-oil-news-today%3A-can-opec-cuts-offset-chinas-waning-demand
• https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-prices-more-bumps-in-the-road-ahead-for-the-national-average-194220690.html
• https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/oil-prices-fall-on-china-demand-worries/ar-BB1jFmk2
• https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1220543

Summary​

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI), as monitored via CL=F futures contract price, has remained most of the week around the $78 per barrel range after briefly reaching $80 per barrel last week.

As seen by wholesale fuel prices collected by DACO on March 9th, wholesale diesel prices mark around $3.37 per gallon on average. Diesel prices have mostly remained around the $3.40 range most of the week. For today, we see a reported low of $3.23 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.51 per gallon (Texaco, Total).

Wholesale gasoline prices on average marked around $3.17 per gallon, with a low of $3.08 per gallon (BVI Gas Inc.) and a high of $3.28 per gallon (Mobil, Texaco). Over the last 90 days, we are seeing a slight upward trend for wholesale gasoline prices where December 2023 a gallon marked $2.80 and current prices are around $3.20 owe gallon. We are expecting a continuation of this trend as we enter the summer.

Wholesale Diesel (Puerto Rico)​

Wholesale Gasoline (Puerto Rico)​

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

References​

• Datos de Combustible - DACO
• Crude Oil Futures via Yahoo Finance
• OPEC Reference Basket Price